Some new polling numbers for July came out, and showed more of a leaning towards Obama than in June.
The electoral map has been updated, and currently shows Obama leading or leaning in 253 electoral votes, while Romney appears to have just 191.
The “tossup states” which are too close to call are currently these (the number in parentheses are the electoral votes):
- Florida (29) – 45% each.
- Iowa (6) – Obama 46%, Romney 44%
- Michigan (16) – Obama 47%, Romney 44%
- North Carolina (15) – Obama 45%, Romney 46%
- Ohio (18) – Obama 46%, Romney 45%
- Wisconsin (10) – Obama 47%, Romney 45%
Note that Obama is leading or tied in 5 out of 6 of these states. He needs to solidify 17 more electoral votes, and has many paths to this. For example, he could win just Ohio and lose all the rest and still win reelection.
Also note that no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, so expect the campaign to really heat up there.