Prediction markets are looking good going into the last few days of this very loooong and exhausting election.
Intrade has Obama’s re-election chances up again – to 68% now.
The extremely well-respected and long-standing (if not flashy) Iowa Electronic Markets (run by the University of Iowa and a federally granted exception to gambling laws) has the chance for Obama re-election at 72.5% (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/PriceHistory_GetData.cfm).
And today’s FiveThirtyEight blog, while not a prediction market, has the probability of Obama being re-elected at 80.9%. There is an interesting blog entry there today talking about demographic shifts in Nevada. See http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/in-nevada-obama-ryan-and-signs-of-a-new-democratic-leaning-normal/
And for those interested in complete loons, Dick Morris, on Fox News, is predicting a landslide victory for Romney. Why does anybody pay that guy for commentary? I still remember him on election night in 2008 sitting there on TV predicting McCain would carry the night. He is never ever right about anything.
doug
