I am not buying tradesport shares yet, but my early thinking is that the Democratic candidate will be Hillary.

I support both Edwards and Hillary at the moment. I think Edwards positions on most things are most in line with my own, but Hillary is also a very reasonable candidate.

Anyway, the reason I think Hillary has the best chance of winning the nomination is because of the way the really huge state primaries have all been moved up to February 5th (!). This gives the best chance of taking it all to the most popular candidate at that time. I think that is Hillary, much more so than Edwanrds and more so than Obama.

As far as the Republican side goes… it is still too early to tell. They have a very open, very odd nomination on their hands. The person raising the most money so far is, contrary to logic, the person with some of the smallest poll numbers – Mitt Romney. I hope Romney gets the nomination. If Republicans thought they had a field day with Kerry for so-called “flip-flopping” the Democrats will be in flip-flop hog heaven if they are battling against Romney, who changes positions on fundamental (pun intended) questions practically on a daily basis.

On the other hand, I hope Giuliani gets the nomination. He is a walking, talking time-bomb.

McCain seems to be wearing thin on Republicans this time around, for some reason. At least a McCain vs Clinton race would be very clear-cut on issues and we might even see a campaign with some civil discourse for a change.

doug