The latest from the prediction markets on the weekend before the election

Prediction markets are looking good going into the last few days of this very loooong and exhausting election.

Intrade has Obama’s re-election chances up again – to 68% now.

The extremely well-respected and long-standing (if not flashy) Iowa Electronic Markets (run by the University of Iowa and a federally granted exception to gambling laws) has the chance for Obama re-election at 72.5% (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/PriceHistory_GetData.cfm).

And today’s FiveThirtyEight blog, while not a prediction market, has the probability of Obama being re-elected at 80.9%. There is an interesting blog entry there today talking about demographic shifts in Nevada. See http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/in-nevada-obama-ryan-and-signs-of-a-new-democratic-leaning-normal/

And for those interested in complete loons, Dick Morris, on Fox News, is predicting a landslide victory for Romney. Why does anybody pay that guy for commentary? I still remember him on election night in 2008 sitting there on TV predicting McCain would carry the night. He is never ever right about anything.

doug


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