Nate Silver and his uncanny election predictions

In addition to getting 50 out of 50 states right (including probably Florida), Nate Silver also got within 15 minutes of what time the election would be called and also correctly predicted that Ohio would be the call of the evening that put Obama over the top.

Skeptics may deride what he does as mere “poll crowd-sourcing” but you have to admit he does it really well. And the fact  he is able to pinpoint not only which way the states will go, but what state will bring the electoral votes past 270 is pretty amazing.

http://www.wired.com/underwire/2012/11/nate-silver-facts-election/

doug

In the end, it will probably come down to Ohio

From today’s FiveThirtyEight blog:

If the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and Chrysler, a move that eventually helped to resurrect the American automobile industry, and, in turn, bolster the economy of the king of swing states: Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the nation. But this year polls suggest that Ohio is slightly Democratic-leaning. That divergence — driven by the auto rescue and the state’s improved economy, local analysts said — may prove determinative. Ohio ranks first on FiveThirtyEight’s tipping point index. The model estimates there is roughly a 50 percent chance that the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes will carry the winning candidate past the 270 mark.

Early in the 2012 presidential campaign, during the summer, the Obama campaign saturated Ohio television with advertisements highlighting Mr. Romney’s “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” op-ed article in The Times as well as linking Mr. Romney to Bain Capital and linking Bain Capital to outsourcing, Mr. Asher said. For many Ohio voters, that effort helped undermine Mr. Romney’s contention that his business experience would benefit them if he reached the White House.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/#more-37207

doug

Romney storm tips

The best of Romney Storm Tips (from my friend, Michael, out in California)

1. If your home is in the path of Sandy, evacuate to your second or third home immediately.

2. If your home sustains damages from Sandy, ask your parents for money to fix it.

3. Airlines can resume their flights. Just tell passengers to keep their windows rolled up.

5. Make sure you’ve moved your cars to the top floor of your garage.

6. Don’t worry about evacuating. If it’s a legitimate storm, your house has a way of shutting itself down to protect itself from damage.

7. If you must drive in the storm, use extra-strength rope to secure your dog to the roof of the car.

8. Ensure your staff secures your yacht with strong rope.

9. We have more detailed storm tips but we aren’t going to tell you any them until after the election…