Prediction markets still ok for Obama re-election, but one nagging worry

The Intrade prediction market still has Obama’s re-election chances at 62.5%, which is up from last week, but there is one nagging worry for me.

If you dig into the Ohio poll details you will see that Obama’s lead is among people who have already voted or plan to vote early or by absentee ballot. But Romney is actually leading in Ohio among people who plan on voting on Election Day.

Since the numbers are so close, I don’t see how you can reliably sort all that out: intend to vote, don’t intend to vote, intend to vote early, intend to vote by absentee ballot, intend to vote on election day.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

doug


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