I know it’s way too early. The conventions still haven’t been held. But it’s a hot, summer Sunday so I’ll make my prediction for the results of the 2012 election.
There are many “electoral maps” out there: Huffington Post, CNN… but I think the Politico swing-state map at http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/ is probably the most accurate, because it includes the most up-to-date polls.
They currently have Obama leading with 332 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes for Romney.
But they have Florida going for Obama even though the polling average is really close. Same with Virginia, even though the spread for Obama is a bit larger. Anything could happen in those two Southern region states, especially in Florida if Rubio is the VP choice.
I say, give both those states to Romney and the final electoral vote will be will be 290 for Obama to 248 to Romney – a reelection win for Obama. By the by, this underscores the importance of Ohio for Romney. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. And I think it’s also impossible for Romney to win without winning Florida. But Romney can still lose even if he wins Florida. There just seem to be more paths to victory for Obama.
So my prediction is 290+ electoral votes for Obama.
We’ll see in November how close I am.