The Florida exit polls, Edwards leaving & Super Tuesday

I’ve seen some Obama supporters post the following results from the Florida exit polls, about people who decided the last month, week, three days and final day:

In the last month: Obama wins 47-40
In the last week: Obama wins 39-31
In the last three days: Obama wins 46-38
The last day: Clinton wins 34-30

They are trying to make the case that late deciders went for Obama and had there been true campaigning there he might have won, or had a narrower loss.

I have several responses to this.

First, look at what the trends were:

http://www.pollster.com/08-FL-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

The trend was clearly going Hillary’s way for a long time, and just getting stronger over time.

I know that Obama supporters are desperately searching for some positive spin in the Florida exit poll numbers – which show practically every demographic supporting Hillary (which bodes poorly for Obama on Super Tuesday) – but just the fact that people who decided the last few days (except for people who decided on the last day) went to Obama by a slim margin is really grasping at straws.

The alternative argument is simply that Clinton supporters like her, decided early, and stuck with her.

And remember, it was only Obama who had TV ads showing in Florida the last week – not Clinton. Had both had TV ads running, who knows what that would have done to the last-minute deciders.

Yes, I am a Hillary supporter. I’ve made that clear here. But I do think an objective look at the demographics and exit polls in Florida, and the demographics and most-recent polls for Super Tuesday give the overwhelming odds to Hillary winning the vast majority of the Super Tuesday primaries. I think that is just objective reality, regardless of what you think of the two candidates.

On top of that, the latest LA Times polls shows that 40% of Edwards supporters 2nd choice is Hillary and 25% for Obama. So Edwards leaving the race will probably mean things break even more towards Hillary on Tuesday.

doug

Hillary wins Florida!

Hillary’s vote numbers in Florida are fantastic, no matter what happens to the actual delegates! (Everything thinks they will eventually get seated at the convention though – nobody wants to antagonize Florida for the general election.)

Even Obama has admitted that you can’t “ignore” the Democratic voters of Florida.

The exit polls were very revealing:

* While more white voters supported Hillary and more black voters supported Obama, the percentage of black voters supporting Hillary was higher than the percentage of white voters supporting Obama.

* Latin-American voters supported Hillary over Obama 2-to-1.

* Overall, Hillary seems to have received more votes that Obama and Edwards combined, with an 18% lead over Obama (as of this writing – that might change as the night goes on.)

And this is even with Obama TV ads being broadcast throughout Florida (even though there was a no campaign pledge from all the candidates).

This cannot bode well for the Obama campaign going into Super Tuesday. According to CNN, if you look at the state-by-state demographics, Clinton is likely to overwhelmingly win in almost all the states.

The momentum is clearly back in Hillary’s favor!

doug

The Stepford Response

Kathleen Sebelius, the Governor of Kansas, stared glassy eyed into the camera and delivered a monotone, bland, kumbaya Democratic response to George Bush’s final State of the Union Speech.

“Join us, Mr. President” she emotionlessly implored. Riiight. Where has she been these past 7 years?

The bottom line is that the U.S. electorate is fairly split down the middle. Elections are about getting enough people in office who agree with you to accomplish goals you think are important. Like universal health care.

Conservative Republicans are against such things. So we need a president and congress with more votes then the Republicans have, so we can pass the legislation we need to get things done.

We don’t want to compromise away on something like universal health care.

If Obama wants to stake his campaign on “getting along with everybody” vs Hillary’s “let’s take a strong stand and actually get things done” then I am behind Hillary all the way!

doug

Hillary’s wide-spread support

It’s interesting that according to the Daily News that even though John Kerry and now Ted Kennedy and also Caroline Kennedy and even Gov. Duval all support Obama that Hillary is leading in the Massachusetts polls over Obama 59% to 22% (with 11% for Edwards)!

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/01/27/2008-01-27_hillary_primed_for_super_tues_tally-1.html

The polls are very promising. Hillary has wide leads in 9 out of 11 Super Tuesday states.

I am feeling very very good going into Florida and Super Tuesday!

doug